Anticipatory Assumptions
Session 3.2 – Explore
What are assumptions?
Imagine a university planning for 2040. Leaders assume students will continue to attend in-person lectures, pursue full degrees, and follow traditional calendars. But what if those expectations no longer hold—or were never questioned?
We all rely on assumptions to make sense of the world – they show up quickly and quietly. They are mental shortcuts that help us simplify complexity and act with confidence. In futures thinking, assumptions are often unconscious beliefs and biases that shape our understanding of the future and influence plans and decisions. They sit inside the models we build to envision, perceive, and sense sustainable futures. (Bergheim, 2023).
| Definition: Assumption Something taken as being true or factual, forming the basis for action or reasoning. |
| Definition: Anticipatory Assumption An assumption about the future that shapes how we act today. |
In futures thinking, it is critical to surface the assumptions we hold about the future because they shape decisions today. The example in the beginning illustrates how easily unexamined assumptions can shape institutional decisions.
Why assumptions matter?
Examining assumptions is crucial because they can limit our view of the past, narrow imagination, maintain the status quo, and leave us unprepared for novelty. Naming assumptions creates space for alternative interpretations and different choices. Anticipatory assumptions—the assumptions we make about the future—guide our choices in the present, influencing policies, strategies, and even daily behaviors, often without our full awareness. By making assumptions explicit, challenging, and testing them, individuals and organizations can broaden their understanding of possible futures, identify potential disruptions, and make more informed, adaptive strategies for a desired future.
Anticipatory assumptions play several roles in shaping how we imagine the future. They can be helpful—but also limiting.
Assumptions can act as:
- Filters: shaping what we notice or ignore
- Anchors: holding us to familiar ideas or past patterns
- Biases: tilting beliefs about what is likely or desirable
Awareness of these assumptions allows us to explore alternative or novel sets of assumptions, images, and actions in the present, and to change the conditions of change. Awareness also helps us see others’ assumptions, which can be useful in clarifying conflicts and opening new solutions. (Tuomi 2019; Rosen)
Example
If an institution assumes AI will replace teachers, it may overinvest in technology and underinvest in human learning— such as empathy, mentorship, peer collaboration. The point is not that the assumption is wrong, however, it must be made explicit and open for critical examination.
The risk of unexamined assumptions
Unquestioned assumptions can limit innovation, entrench outdated structures, and reduce the diversity of imagined futures. This is especially dangerous in times of change when flexibility and openness are crucial. We need a way to make anticipatory assumptions explicit and observable (Miller, 2018, p. 95).
“Unexamined assumptions colonize the future with views of the past”
Example
During COVID-19, many institutions assumed continuity: stable campuses, fixed curricula, and predictable student needs. Those that had questioned such assumptions were more adaptive.
Making assumptions visible and usable
To navigate complex futures, we need to become aware of the assumptions we are making—and learn how to work with them intentionally. The capacity to recognize, challenge, and creatively reframe anticipatory assumption is also called futures literacy (Bergheim 2023). It does not aim to predict the future but to explore it as a space for learning, curiosity, and transformation. Thus, futures literacy can be seen as a capability for “using‑the‑future.”
Futures literacy helps us to:
- make anticipatory assumptions visible,
- turn them into learning tools,
- imagine alternative futures and diverse possibilities,
- avoid over‑reliance on dominant narratives or linear trends.
Recognizing and categorizing different kinds of assumptions
Identifying and classifying assumptions is like learning to see the invisible threads that guide strategy and decisions. Many assumptions go unnoticed because they’re embedded in our worldviews. Naming and classifying types of assumptions makes them easier to spot and to challenge and to unpack their effects. Not all assumptions are created equal—and not all are equally visible.
Different kinds of assumptions do different kinds of work. Distinguishing them helps you decide which to keep, which to revise, and which to disrupt. Several key distinctions will help us analyze assumptions more clearly. These categories are not rigid—they often overlap—but they provide a useful toolkit for spotting hidden thinking.
Types of assumptions
- Explicit: Stated openly (e.g., mission statements, policies).
- Implicit: Unspoken, taken for granted, often more influential.
- Descriptive: Claims about how the world is or will be.
- Normative: Claims about how the world should be (values and goals).
- Cultural: Deeply held beliefs and norms shared by a group.
- Structural: Assumptions built into systems, policies, and institutional practices.
Example
An institution may explicitly state how it values “student-centered learning” (explicit) but implicitly treats lectures and exams as “real learning” (implicit). While saying “AI will transform higher education” is a descriptive assumption, “we must use AI to make learning more efficient” is normative. Cultural assumptions might equate education with formal schooling. A structural assumption might be that degrees must be earned over a fixed number of years. Here, both types shape what kinds of futures we believe are “realistic” or “acceptable.”
Pause and Reflect
* What hidden assumptions shape how we teach, research, and structure knowledge in higher education?
* What assumptions are embedded in your institution’s decisions?
* What “truths” about the future are taken for granted in your context?
Heuristics and cognitive biases that narrow our assumptions
Our brains use heuristics—mental shortcuts—to decide quickly. These shortcuts bring cognitive biases that can lead to flawed or overly narrow assumptions about the future (Kahneman, 2011).
Common biases in futures thinking
- Availability bias: Overweighting what is recent or familiar.
- Confirmation bias: Seeking futures that support current beliefs.
- Status quo bias: Expecting existing systems to persist and remain unchanged.
Biases are predictable. Naming them reduces their grip and opens room for broader futures. Awareness helps one slow down and ask whether we’re exploring real alternatives or reinforcing the familiar.
Pause and Reflect
Can you give an example of
- an availability bias at your institution?
- a current belief that feeds into the ways the future is seen at your institution?
- a feature in academia that is expected to remain unchanged?
Explore further
– Explore your worldview with the test and reflect on how does your worldview affect the assumptions you do for the future?
– More on Cognitive Biases, Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011).
Deepen
Learn more about challenging assumptions—with attention to assumptions as instruments of power, decolonial and plural futures thinking, and an introduction to tools for challenging assumptions: